After reviewing data from more than 29 million adults receiving hospital care in California, researchers found that 2 million adults (6.8%) had atrial fibrillation, an irregular heart rhythm. When they extrapolated these data to statewide data and the U.S. population, they found that at least 10.55 million American adults (4.48%) are predicted to have atrial fibrillation. These estimates are three times higher than projections created more than 20 years ago. Previously, researchers used data from 1996-1997 to estimate that 3.3 million adults would have atrial fibrillation in 2020.
Adults included in this initial analysis — those receiving hospital care in California between 2005-2019 — were about 50 years old, half were women, and half were white. The researchers also compared trends over time — grouping adults into five-year increments between 2005-2019. During this time, they found that atrial fibrillation increased from affecting 4.49% of adults between 2005-2009 to 6.82% of adults in 2015-2019. They also found that adults ages 75 and older and white adults were more likely to have atrial fibrillation. However, over time, they found that adults with atrial fibrillation tended to skew younger, were less likely to be women or white, and were more likely to have high blood pressure or diabetes.
The researchers conclude that these updated estimates support public health efforts to better prevent, detect, and manage atrial fibrillation. The study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology and was supported by NHLBI.